
Is Groundhog Better At Forecasting Weather Than Real Meteorologists?
This Sunday is the big day! All attention will focus on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Philadelphia as Punxsutawney Phil takes centerstage for America's celebration of Groundhog Day.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, American's have looked to this prognosticating rodent for insight regarding the duration of the current winter since 1886.
As we all know, when Phil emerges from his burrow, should he see his shadow, we are supposedly in store for six more weeks of bad luck and bad weather. Should he go “shadow-less,” we’re in for an early spring.
Truth be told, Phil is actually not very good at this forecasting thing. NOAA recently conducted research regarding his predicting prowess and found that Phil is not even near the top of other forecasting animals. He actually ranked 17th among his peers.
Some Of These Animal Forecasters Are Incredibly Accurate
NOAA's findings, after the dust of all the math settled, showed that some of these animal forecasters are amazingly accurate:
Place Forecast Mascot Species State Accuracy (%)
1 Staten Island Chuck Groundhog NY 85%
2 General Beauregard Lee Groundhog GA 80%
3 Lander Lil Prairie Dog Statue WY 75%
4 Concord Charlie Never Seen (presumed groundhog) WV 65%
5 Gertie the Groundhog Groundhog IL 65%
17 Punxsutawney Phil Groundhog PA 35%
As the above numbers reflect, Phil misses the mark with his forecast nearly 7 of each 10 years. However, some of these other mascots hardly ever miss it. So, can the same be said about their human "meteorologist" counterparts?
How Do These Animals' Forecasts Compare To Their Human Counterparts?
Obviously we aren't comparing apples to apples as most weather professionals don't forecast the demise or extension of winter, but if you look at NOAA's findings about the accuracy of meteorologist's "long-term forecasts", meaning anything 10 days or longer, they only nail it about 50% of the time.
A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.
So, it would appear that when these "animal forecasters" can accurately nail a six-week forecast as much as 85% of the time, they win this battle hands (or paws) down.
If we're relying on long term info from that educated meteorologist, a simple coin toss would probably glean the same accuracy.
5 Animals Better at Predicting Weather in SBC Than a Groundhog
Gallery Credit: Gary McCoy
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