Texas’ Population Is Now Expected To Surpass California Sooner Than Expected

Texas is not the fastest-growing state in the U.S. right now, but pacing inside the top three; however, we likely will soon be the most populous one.

Texas is the second-largest state by area, only behind Alaska -- that's not changing any time soon. However, what will change soon, the Lone Star State is projected to be home to more people than the most populated state, California, much sooner than expected.

Texas's Population Is Expected To Surpass California's Soon

Over the past several years, the Golden State's population growth has slowed down, while Texas is still experiencing a massive influx of new residents. California's growth isn't even inside the Top 15 for growing states any longer.

Top 10 States/D.C. With the Fastest-Growing Populations

Since the COVID pandemic in '20, both Florida and Texas have seen a population boom. And while that has slowed slightly, Texas is right now only the third fastest-growing state; the Houston Chronicle explains how the state may soon surpass California's population.

Texas is projected to surpass California in population by the mid-2040s, possibly around 2045, according to some sources. This shift is driven by faster population growth in Texas, fueled by factors like a warm climate, a robust economy, and a relatively lower cost of living, as well as immigration, according to a political scientist.

Realtor.com also points out that Florida, Texas, and North Carolina led the nation in net migration. This takes into account both domestic and international migration. Looking at those numbers, Florida saw 475,339 new arrivals, and Texas saw 404,836.